April twenty _ fourthMegamillionspotThe initial PMI of the euro zone as a whole in April has risen from 50% in March, according to a report released Tuesday by Stemp Global and HCOB.Megamillionspot.3 bounce back to 51Megamillionspot.4, 50.7 higher than market expectations, standing above the rise and fall line for the second month in a row, with the highest growth rate in 11 months. Among them, the initial PMI of the service sector rose further to 52.9 from 51.5 last month, also exceeding market expectations and reaching an 11-month high. But manufacturing remained in the doldrums, with eurozone manufacturing PMI falling from 46.1 to 45.6, the lowest in four months and in a contraction range since mid-2022. Driven by the service sector, Germany's overall PMI stood above the boom-bust line for the first time in 10 months, and manufacturing continued to shrink, but at a slower pace than last month. Specifically, Germany's composite PMI rose from 47.7 to 50.5 in April, which was higher than the expected value of 48.4. The initial PMI of the manufacturing sector was 42.2, which was lower than the expected 42.7 and slightly higher than the previous value of 41.9. The service sector jumped from 50.1 to 53.3, exceeding expectations by 50.5.
Separately, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the ECB would cut interest rates at its June meeting. "if things are in the same direction as in recent weeks, we will relax our restrictive monetary policy position in June," he said in an interview on Tuesday. In other words, suppose there are no surprises between now and then, as the French saying 'fait accompli'. " Guindos's comments are in line with the general consensus that the ECB will begin to ease. But the trend after June is controversial, with the vice president arguing that inflation in the service sector, stronger price pressures in the United States, the geopolitical situation and its potential impact on crude oil are all risks. "uncertainty makes it difficult for us to come to a conclusion," he said, according to transcripts on the ECB's website. I've already mentionedMegamillionspotIn June, we tend to be very cautious about what happens next. " In addition, Guindos said: "Labor costs are still rising, but we are moving in the right direction and productivity will increase." "the Fed's decision is vital not only to the United States, but also to the global economy, and it will also affect the eurozone."
The data that need to be watched today are the IFO business climate index in Germany in April, the initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in March and the monthly retail sales rate in Canada in February.
Dollar index
The dollar index fluctuated downwards yesterday, losing 106.00 and refreshing seven-day lows, and is now trading around 105.60. In addition to profit-taking to a certain extent on the exchange rate, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations this year also constitute a certain pressure on the exchange rate. In addition, after the dollar index fell below the support of the 106.00 mark, some multiple forced stops also exacerbated the decline in the exchange rate. Today, we will focus on the pressure situation near 106.00, with the lower support around 105.00.
EUR / USD
The euro shook up yesterday, recovering the 1.0700 mark and refreshing seven-day highs, and is now trading around 1.0710. In addition to short covering to a certain extent to support the exchange rate, the loss of the 106.00 mark by the dollar index under the pressure of profit-taking and interest rate cuts is also an important factor supporting the rebound of the euro. However, expectations that the ECB would cut interest rates in June limited the room for a rebound in the exchange rate. Today, we will focus on the pressure situation near 1.0800, with the lower support around 1.0600.
Sterling / dollar
The pound shook up yesterday, regaining the 1.2400 mark and is now trading around 1.2460. In addition to short covering to provide some support to the exchange rate, the weakening of the dollar index under the pressure of profit-taking and interest rate cuts is also an important factor supporting the rebound of sterling. However, weak UK economic data over the period and expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England this year have limited the room for a rebound. Today, we will focus on the pressure situation near 1.2550, with the lower support around 1.2350.